Posted on April 11, 2011
Prieur du Plessis submits:
The manufacturing PMIs for March indicate that the pace of the robust global manufacturing sector has moderated. My GDP-weighted PMI for the major economies fell to 56.0 from 58.2 in February.
The pace of expansion in the U.S. eased slightly to a still robust 61.2 in March from 61.4 in February. The pace in the Eurozone also eased to 57.5 from 59.0 in February and easing was widespread. Greece, on the other hand, has seen a moderation of the contraction in its manufacturing sector. The U.K.’s manufacturing sector moderated relatively sharply from a robust 61.5 to 57.1.
As expected, the expansion in Japan’s manufacturing sector was halted as the impact of the terrible disaster is being felt. After registering its second consecutive month of expansion in February, the manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.9 to 46.4. The huge turnaround in Australia’s manufacturing sector in February came to an abrupt end in
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Posted on April 11, 2011
Alfred Little submits:
Chinese RTO Puda Coal, Inc (PUDA) Chairman Ming Zhao transferred the ownership of PUDA’s sole Chinese operating entity, Shanxi Puda Coal Group Co., Ltd (“Shanxi Coal”), to himself in 2009 without shareholder approval according to official government filings. Then, in 2010, Zhao sold 49% and pledged the other 51% of Shanxi Coal to CITIC Trust Co., Ltd (“CITIC”), a Chinese private equity fund, for RMB245 million ($37.1 million).
Zhao then recklessly leveraged Shanxi Coal by borrowing RMB3.5 billion ($530.3 million) from CITIC at an incredibly high 14.5% annual interest rate (including fees) to finance the development of its coal mines. PUDA shareholders are completely unaware of these transactions that decimate the value of its U.S. listed shares.
Background – An Industry Facing Government Mandated Consolidation
According to PUDA’s 2010 10-K filing:
In order to improve production efficiency, workplace safety and to reduce coal mine accidents, the Shanxi provincial government issued
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Posted on April 09, 2011
China Play Stocks submits:
China A-shares are traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, and not available directly to foreign individual investors. China H-shares trade in Hong Kong and are open to foreign investors. The A-shares have historically traded at significant premiums to H-shares. This is because a bulk of the A-shares investors have been individual mainland retail investors who don’t have many other avenues to invest their savings; remember, their savings rate is estimated to range from 35% to 50%. These Chinese retail investors are of a speculative bent and tend to chase performance, resulting in wild swings like the bubble of 2007. Mainland retail investors were limited in their ability to invest in H-shares till the recent introduction of the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme. Short-selling was not permitted in the mainland until recently, so there was no way to arbitrage by shorting the A-shares and going long the equivalent H-shares.
The
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Posted on April 08, 2011
Patrick Chovanec submits:
One sure sign of a rising China is its more assertive stance in bilateral talks with the US. So last year, when US negotiators proposed that China help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance by opening up its markets to US exports, Beijing was ready with a proposal of its own: We’ll buy more American goods, if you scrap restrictions on high-tech exports. The US Cold War-style mentality, they argued, is the main thing standing in the way of more balanced trade.
Most experts consider the Chinese argument to be overblown. They estimate the annual amount of sales to China blocked by US export controls at US$2-3 billion. (The only hard number comes from a 2009 survey by the American Chambers of Commerce based in Beijing and Shanghai, which tallied US$560 million in actual lost sales). This barely puts a dent in China’s $252 billion trade gap with the US for
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Alicia Damley submits:
The growth potential for China’s financial sector is undisputed, driven by strong growth and an under-penetrated, large population rapidly accumulating wealth (see here). In anticipation of this, investor valuation of Chinese banks put them into the top group of global banks by market capitalization. Critical to the development of its economy, China’s domestic financial sector has been nurtured cautiously, shielded from foreign competition and remains under significant regulatory oversight. For example, in banking, lending growth is targeted, lending rates must exceed a floor, deposit rates cannot exceed a ceiling, and all deposits and foreign currency must be transmitted via the banking system. However, this has not prevented a circumvention of letter and spirit of the rules.
A recent example of this
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Kevin McElroy submits:
While the leadership in the United States quibbles about whether we’re at war in Libya or we’re not (hint: We are), or whether we should reduce our deficit by 0.23% or not (that’s the $33 billion Congress is currently debating), the developing world continues to care less and less.
Take a look at the charts below, which I gleefully borrowed from a recent Bank of Japan report on commodities:
[Click all to enlarge]
We’re well past the point of being equal partners in the usage of the world’s energy resources. If the chart on the left is any indication, we’re actually well on our way to becoming rather inconsequential as a global energy consumer. And it’s pretty clear that any growth in developing world energy consumption means a commensurate decrease in energy consumption on a percentage basis.
But what might not be so clear from the chart on the right:
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Variant View Research submits:
On 4/6/2011, Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) issued a press release responding to our research report titled “Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT): The Most Egregious Chinese RTO.”
We present, side-by-side, excerpts from ABAT’s response and statements from their official filings. ABAT’s response contains numerous false and misleading statements which directly contradict its filings. We have provided links to these filings to make it convenient for the reader to verify our claims.
In our report, we noted that Chairman Fu now owns the company’s key subsidiary, which ABAT had previously claimed ownership of.
We wrote:
If the filings are accurate, the Chairman transferred ownership of the company’s sole operating subsidiary to himself without explanation or compensation. If the filings are inaccurate, then the company is guilty of misrepresenting itself as previously owning 100% of HLJ ZQPT.
Excerpt from ABAT response on 4/6/2011:
[HLJ ZQPT] has been owned by 16 investors, including Chairman Fu,
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Carlos X. Alexandre submits:c
The topic of a reserve currency to replace the dollar never gets old, and the logic behind it is a bit fuzzy. First and foremost, why is the dollar the reserve currency of choice? Does America threaten to bombard any country that chooses to keep its reserves in euros, yen, Swiss francs, or gold, instead of adorable Benjamin Franklins? Let’s look at the landscape first.
The Financial Times published the article “The best alternative to a new global currency,” authored by Joseph Stiglitz, a recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001. Mr. Stiglitz points out some issues, as follows:
Further, when crises occur in many countries simultaneously, as happened, for instance, during the 1998 east Asian crisis, IMF lending could be totally financed by new SDR issues in unlimited amounts. If and when the world economy recovered or boomed, SDR issues could then cease, or even be reabsorbed.
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Jae Jun submits:
I understand that shorts have to exist in the market to balance the equation, and let me first say that after having read “The Art of Short Selling” thoroughly a couple of times, I have the utmost respect for fundamental short sellers such as Kathryn Staley, Jim Chanos and David Einhorn.
China MediaExpress (CCME) is a Chinese company that I currently hold and is currently under heavy scrutiny as a fraud. Reports by boutiques specializing on shorts have been released, and while I must give credit to Muddy Waters for the work they have put in to their report, the main argument of the shorter’s report is that the numbers are “too good to be true”.
But I’m going to present a case for at least why the SEC filings are accurate.
Independent Auditor Required
The role of an independent auditor is crucial in protecting investors from dishonest management and
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Posted on April 07, 2011
Ian Bezek submits:
I am short ChinaCast Education (CAST) for the following reasons:
1. ChinaCast has engaged in several dubious transactions with seemingly related parties.
2. It’s quite possible that ChinaCast investors’ funds were misused or misappropriated during these unusual transactions.
3. Several of ChinaCast’s important subsidiaries were not audited by Deloitte, but rather, by largely unknown auditing firms.
4. There appear to be numerous errors and omissions in past ChinaCast filings with the SEC and communications with investors.
5. ChinaCast is highly reliant on creating future transactions to keep up its reportedly strong rate on growth.
6. ChinaCast’s questionable management team is rapidly losing investors’ confidence.
The Pitch
ChinaCast Education wants you to believe that it, a tiny Chinese company, has managed to create a prosperous education business by purchasing private universities at great prices from, among other people, a peasant farmer and the owner of a tiny printing shop. This outstanding
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