Archive | Latin America

Is Brazil a Paper Jaguar?

Posted on April 11, 2011

In 1997, foreign investors fled Asian markets and these once unstoppable countries came to be called “Paper Tigers” as the region was swept up in a financial flu. Could it be that within the next two years Brazil will be identified as a “Paper Jaguar” as it falls ill with a financial dengue fever? There are certainly a number of striking differences between Asia in the 1990s and Brazil over the last five years. However, there were also great differences between 1950s communist Soviet Union and 1990s East Asia, yet this did not deter economist Paul Krugman from identifying factors which were shared by both. These same factors may also exist in the Brazilian economy, resulting in the fate that befell the once revered Asian countries.

In his 1994 essay titled “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle,” Krugman posited that sustained economic growth cannot be achieved only with increases in inputs

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Arcos Dorados Holdings: Co-IPO Pick of the Week

Posted on April 11, 2011

IPOdesktop submits:

Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) is scheduling an $874 million IPO with a market capitalization of $2.975 billion at the price range mid-point of $14 for Thursday, April 14, 2011. ARCO is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The full IPO calendar lists 7 other IPOs for this week.

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION – The fast food segment in Latin America grew at a 14.5% compound growth rate from 2004 to 2009, according to Euromonitor (page 1, March 25 S-1 filing), which also estimated the fast food segment in Latin America totaled $35 billion in 2010.

In addition, Euromonitor estimates that the growth of QSRs in Latin America and the Caribbean will outpace the growth of the fast food segment generally in the near future. Page 112, March 25 S-1 filing.

ARCO is unique because it is McDonald’s (MCD) largest franchisee, the Master franchiser for Latin America and it is the market brand

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Bravo for Brazil

Posted on April 08, 2011

Calafia Beach Pundit submits:

Brazil yesterday apparently gave up its quixotic quest to keep its currency from appreciating against a weakening dollar. Why follow the dollar down to the inflationary depths, when you can keep your currency stable against other currencies and minimize the impact of rising dollar-denominated commodities?

[Click all to enlarge]

On balance, as the chart above shows, the real is the same today against the dollar as it was 12 years ago, in 1999. (This is a milestone in itself; who would ever have thought the real could go 12 years without a devaluation against the dollar?) That would ordinarily be very good news for Brazil, except that the dollar has lost over 25% of its value against other currencies during that period. So the real has suffered equally (and this fact should be shoved in the face of any exporter who claims he has lost competitiveness as a result of

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New Brazilian Investor Tax Not Really Bad News

Posted on April 07, 2011

Emerging Money submits:

By Tim Seymour

Headlines around today’s announcement that Brazil is extending its 6% tax on foreign purchases of local bonds may look bearish, but the real news is not so bad. The IOF tax on corporate and bank debt sold outside Brazil really has a bigger effect on locals who were borrowing in dollars more than it does on those selling dollars to buy real-denominated bonds. This will have some impact on the pressure that is currently driving the real back up to levels higher than the Brazilian government likes. But this is not really where the finance ministry is going to get results.

In fact, while the market was expecting something from the Brazilian authorities, this may actually be on the softer side of things. Brazil continues to underperform the rest of the emerging markets, but has come back to actually be the best-performing Latin market so far this

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Chiquita’s Outlook Sweetened by Free Trade Agreement With Colombia

Posted on April 07, 2011

Danny Furman submits:

Two weeks ago I spent some time contemplating what might be the best way to play rising food prices. Ultimately, I bought shares of Chiquita Brands (CQB), world leader in produce production, marketing and distribution. So far so good, with shares already up about 10% from $14.50 to $16. Jim Rogers’ Agriculture ETN (RJA) would not have a bad choice either, sitting at $11.43 and up 5% in two weeks.

Chiquita still trades at a favorable valuation relative to peers Dole Foods (DOLE) and Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP), which is not surprising given that South America based stocks generally suffer from a lack of investor interest. That makes them all the more appealing to the bargain hunter in me. Exemplified perfectly by the rapid and expansive development of Brazil, the concept of South America as a dangerous place to invest is archaic. Dozens of Brazilian companies trade on major

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MercadoLibre Is Looking Remarkably Overbought

Posted on April 04, 2011

Emerging Money submits:

By Tim Seymour

The “eBay of Latin America” is getting a lot of buzz in the markets, but

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The Challenges of Selecting High Yield Latin American Dividend Stocks, Part 2

Posted on April 03, 2011

Jim Pyke submits:

Several Latin American ADRs offer quite high dividend yields; however, the stability and consistency of that yield varies significantly over time. In this follow-up to my previous article, I look closely at the dividend yields and performance of four additional ADRs.

I found the following ADRs to offer substantial current dividend yields:

Latin American Dividend ADRs

Ticker Name Market Capitalization ($ Millions) Dividend Yield Country Industry
PVD Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones-Provida, S.A. 1,718 6.9% Chile Financial
YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima 17,610 6.4% Argentina Oil & Gas
APSA Alto Palermo S.A. 450 6.3% Argentina Real Estate
BFR BBVA Banco Frances 2,027 6.0% Argentina Banking
CPL CPFL Energia S.A. 14,117 5.7% Brazil Utility
SCCO Southern Peru Copper Corporation 33,864 4.6% Peru Mining
TMX Telefonos de Mexico – Series L 16.750 4.3% Mexico Telecom
IRS IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones 796 3.8% Argentina Real Estate
BLX Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S.A. 488

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Argentina on the Cusp of Hyperinflation

Posted on April 01, 2011

Pater Tenebrarum submits:

We want to comment on recent events in Argentina, which have not gotten much play in the news media given the flood of newsworthy events in other parts of the world over the past few weeks. Argentina represents an interesting real-time case study of a developing inflationary crack-up boom, or as Mises termed it in the German language, die Katastrophenhausse (literally, the “catastrophic bull market”).

Officially, inflation, or rather the decline in money

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Shipwrecked Portugal Could Use Brazilian Aid

Posted on March 31, 2011

Vikash-Jain submits:

London’s Financial Times has a novel solution to Portugal’s debt crisis: annexation by its former colony, Brazil. Despite Portuguese outrage, the FT has a point. If it absorbed Portugal, Brazil’s GDP and debt would rise by 10%. Portugal, from being the poorest in old Europe, would be part of a country with a future – a stable government, a growing economy, a trade surplus, and hard cash in a solvent bank – all things Portugal sorely lacks. Like its economy Portugal’s stock index, the PSI 20 has been flat all year.

Not Brazil. iShares’ EWZ (one of the largest of all ETFs with $13 bln in assets) holds large caps like Petrobras and miner, Vale. These two firms are 37% of the ETF. EWZ (EWZ) is up 6.5% in one year.
For firms tied to Brazilian’s prosperity, there is the Brazil Small Cap (BRF). Heavier on consumer and industrial sectors,

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Brazil, The U.S., And the Realities of Private Equity

Posted on March 31, 2011

The Deal Economy submits:

By Robert Teitelman

The New York Times‘ Andrew Ross Sorkin pops up Tuesday, Day 2 in the Times‘ Era of the Paywall, in São Paulo, Brazil, where he’s discovered the country’s booming buyout business, which, he tells us over and over again, uses no leverage. I should italicize that: They use no leverage.

This he views as not only virtuous, but a kind of rebuke to the American and European private equity industry, which he defines as a band of financial engineering mega-maestros who “pursue elephant-sized deals,” ignoring, unlike the Brazilians, smaller, family-owned companies that can be tuned up and provided growth capital to expand and make everyone happy without leverage. Indeed, Sorkin argues that these virtuous Brazilians are more akin to “what the fledgling private equity industry circa the 1970s in the United States pursued.” That is, before they became greedy barbarians in the ’80s.

Now, in fact, Sorkin’s

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